Forecasts of the Swedish vehicle fleet

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The general forecast indicates that the number of vehicles in use will increase in Sweden for both passenger cars and light and heavy lorries in 2017 and ensuing years, based in part on predicted population and GDP growth. The number may decrease over the considerably longer term, particularly with respect to passenger cars, in the event that fully automated vehicles gain dominance and passenger travel in urban environments can occur via more taxi-like systems.

The development of the road vehicle fleet will affect the conditions for future transport policy and the attainment of transport policy goals in several ways. The Government’s long-term objective is for Sweden to have a fossil-fuel-free vehicle fleet. Financial and other policy instruments play an important role in this effort. The Government needs a documented basis on which to design effective financial policy instruments for the transport sector.

In light of this, Transport Analysis has been tasked by the Government with providing statistics on and short-term forecasts of the development of the Swedish vehicle fleet in terms of, for example, fuels, weights, and carbon dioxide emissions for both light and heavy road vehicles, and with providing long-term assessments of these aspects. This assignment is new, and has not previously been carried out by Transport Analysis or any other Swedish agency.

Summary report 2017:8 - Forecasts of the Swedish vehicle fleet