Short-Term Forecasts for the Vehicle Fleet 2024-2027
The forecasts for this year are characterized by an ongoing recession, with the result that the forecast for the number of newly registered vehicles is low. Diminished household purchasing power is evident mainly in that private individuals are purchasing or leasing fewer passenger vehicles.
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We consequently believe that the number of newly registered passenger cars will decline in 2024, and then gradually increase thereafter. The weak krona will continue to contribute to further substantial exports of used passenger cars. The number of newly registered light lorries is also expected to be somewhat lower in the coming years. The forecast number of new heavy lorries is on a par with the pre-pandemic trend. In the forecasts for the year, we consider that the number of newly registered electric vehicles will decrease somewhat for passenger cars and buses in 2024, and subsequently increase once again. On the other hand, we believe that the number of electric light trucks will increase dramatically over the next two years.
